“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
As a sort of follow-up to my last post, I’ll say that being aware of one’s cognitive biases is a necessary but not sufficient condition for counter-acting them. Because even if you’re aware of your biases, those biases still apply, both in how you perceive your own bias and how you judge your own counter-action. To put it another way:
Idea #4: Predicting the future is harder than you think, even if you know why predicting the future is harder than you think.
(With thanks to Douglas Hofstadter.)